Avanços da computação quântica e os planos de adoção de algoritmos pós-quânticos na ICP-Brasil

Abstract

The development of quantum computing is growing greatly around the world, and the adoption of post-quantum cryptography algorithms in Brazil is a highly relevant topic for national security. In this context, this paper evaluates recent progresses in quantum computing, considering the estimated growth in quantum technology capacity and comparing to the plans of post-quantum algorithms adoption at ICP-BRASIL (Brazilian Public Key Infrastructure). The main goal of this paper is to assess the vulnerability of RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) encryption, for key sizes used at ICP-BRASIL, given the possibility of breaking it using Shor's quantum factorization algorithm. To achieve this objective, the work includes an analysis of academic papers and studies, information on the adoption of post-quantum algorithms in Brazil, particularly on ICP3 BRASIL, information from leading countries in quantum development, and projections for investment and commercial availability of quantum computers by big technology companies. The study concluded that the quantum threat of breaking RSA is real, but there is still insufficient evidence to determine the timeframe for effective exploitation by countries and other actors. There is also no timetable for the adoption of postquantum algorithms, with confirmed dates for the adoption and migration of current systems and digital certificates to the new technology. Combining the above analyses, the study concluded that quantum computing is pushing the adoption of post-quantum algorithms and that the Brazilian government should strongly support the country's adaptation initiatives.