Inteligência estratégica e processo decisório: um estudo da relação entre o decisor e o analista de inteligência

Abstract

In the current dynamic and unpredictable global scenario, integrating strategic information into the decision-making process is a priority, especially in the Defense environment. The complexity of threats requires an adaptive and collaborative approach, making the relationship between intelligence analysts and decision-makers crucial to transform critical information into effective actions, aligned with the demands of an ever-changing environment. In this sense, this research investigates how a more collaborative relationship between intelligence analysts and decision makers can positively impact the results of the Strategic Intelligence activity. The study is based on the premise that, despite the risks associated with the intensification of this relationship, greater interaction between the parties improves the quality and relevance of Intelligence products and reduces uncertainties in the decision-making process. To this end, the methodology combines literature review with the application of a structured questionnaire, answered by specialists from the Strategic Intelligence Course of the Escola Superior de Guerra, to measure perceptions about benefits, challenges, and opportunities for improvement in the interaction between the parties. The data analysis uses the Probabilistic Preference Composition method, which quantifies responses in probabilities and identifies gaps between importance and performance, positioned in a quadrant matrix, as well as the Pareto principle, to guide critical areas for intervention. The results highlight the challenges related to mutual trust, the definition of responsibilities and the overcoming of communication barriers, in addition to highlighting opportunities in the alignment of processes, the sharing of information and the feedback between analysts and decision-makers. Finally, the data confirms that improved collaboration between these parties strengthens the effectiveness of Strategic Intelligence, promoting products that are more aligned with decision-making needs and contributing to the reduction of uncertainties at strategic levels.