Programa Nuclear Brasileiro: oportunidades e vulnerabilidades

Abstract

This study analyzes the Brazilian Nuclear Program and the Brazilian Nuclear Program Protection System with the objective of evaluating the applicability of the countering hybrid warfare model proposed by the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) in the Brazilian context. This research aims to determine whether the proposed model can be adapted to strengthen the protection of the PNB against hybrid threats, considering Brazil’s political, economic, and institutional specificities. The SIPRON, coordinated by the Institutional Security Cabinet, integrates various governmental, civilian, and military entities to protect nuclear facilities, ensure cybersecurity, and respond to emergencies. However, the system faces vulnerabilities such as cyberattacks and misinformation, exacerbated by local challenges including budgetary and bureaucratic constraints. After conducting this analysis, this study concludes that the MCDC model offers potential to enhance PNB security, particularly through integration, flexibility, and a focus on societal and institutional resilience. However, there are limitations such as implementation complexity and the need for ongoing training. Recommendations include strengthening inter-institutional cooperation, increasing investment in security technologies, and promoting awareness of hybrid threats. International cooperation and technological innovation are also essential to improve Brazil’s response to these threats. Therefore, this research concludes that adapting the MCDC model, along with strengthening local capacities, could significantly contribute to the protection of the PNB and national security.