Os Cenários Prospectivos contribuindo para o Planejamento Estratégico de longo prazo na Marinha do Brasil (2020-2023)

Abstract

This work aims to identify the main challenges related to using prospective scenarios as a tool for developing long-term strategic planning in the Brazilian Navy between 2020 and 2023. To this end, exploratory research was carried out, from a case study type, with a qualitative approach, through documentary and bibliographical research on the subject, in addition of using structured interviews with students from the Maritime Policy and Strategy Course (CPEM) at the Naval War College (EGN), in 2023. As the main results, it was possible to identify the lack of knowledge on the subject as one of the main explanatory factors for the non-use of prospective scenarios in planning and in the decision-making process in the Brazilian Navy. More specifically, it is possible to conclude that the low diffusion of such tool and the concern about current threats have contributed to maintaining the focus on short-term solutions, leaving latent, medium, and long-term threats outside the Force's investments.