O ambiente de Defesa no Indo-Pacífico: apontamentos para o planejamento estratégico do Brasil

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific, the current global geopolitical axis, constitutes the main theater of the strategic dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China for international primacy. This competition unfolds in the context of the end of the post-Cold War era, marked by the resurgence of state conflict amidst deep global interdependence and interconnection, especially in economic and technological fields. From a vast bibliographical analysis, which highlights the degree of complexity and sensitivity of the Indo-Pacific defense scenario, two megatrends have been identified: the formation of alliances and the arms race. The two megatrends, widely consolidated, highlight the force of Realism in international relations, summarized by the search for balance of power and deterrence. A contingency in the Indo-Pacific, an environment where multiple asymmetric state actors - with expectations that do not necessarily align - seek to achieve their interests, would have planetary repercussions. Brazilian strategic decisions should require frequent consideration and updates, both regarding possible alliances vis-à-vis its traditional foreign policy of neutrality, and regarding the level of socioeconomic resilience of the country, for a flare-up in the Indo-Pacific would result in the scarcity of critical products, damages to Brazilian citizens at home and abroad, and threats to national security.